Dickson (Key Seat) – Federal Election

MP

Since 2001, Peter Dutton (LNP/Liberal). The House has a Minister for Defence and Leader in Government Business.

Profile

Dickson is located on the former Pine Rivers Shire at the north-western edge of greater Brisbane. It includes Kurwongbah and Petrie, as well as the suburbs of Strathpine and Albany Creek. Dickson also contains parts of Kallangur, Murrumba downs, Ferny Hills Everton Hills, Everton Hills, and Murrumba Downs. It covers 724 kilometers and includes Lake Samsonvale as well as Lake Kurwongbah.

Background

Dickson, one of the newest Queensland seats, was first up for election in 1993. The seat is named after Sir James Dickson, a prominent advocate for Federation, Premier of Queensland 1898-1999, and Minister for Defence in Barton’s first Federal Ministry. Paul Keating took Michael Lavarch, Labor’s candidate, from backbench anonymity to serve as Attorney General. However, he was only sworn into office after his victory in a supplementary election held a month following the federal election. Lavarch represented many electorates in his previous role as Fisher MP 1987-93.

Lavarch was among the ministerial casualties of the Keating government in 1996. Tony Smith from the Liberal Party defeated him. Smith was disendorsed for domestic matters before the 1998 election. In an attempt to combat the rise of Cheryl Kernot, the Labor candidate, the Liberal Party endorsed Rod Henshaw, a high-profile former radio broadcaster. Dickson was the most prominent local contest of 1998 and produced the closest finish. Kernot had been known for spotting the dummy’ ABC-TV’s election coverage when it appeared she was losing, but she came home with 176 votes after two weeks. Ker’s not rocky career in Labor Party continued, hampered at every turn by her demons and a few from the Queensland Labor Party branch, which had never brought her to its bosom. Kernot lost her election in 2001 after she was left to her own devices as the Queensland Labor Party spent money to defend safer seats in the post-Tampa political climate.

Redistributions and 2004’s election helped Peter Dutton, a new Liberal MP, increase his margin to double figures. This was irrelevant when Dutton experienced an 8.8% swing and then lost 217 votes to win the 2007 election. Dutton lost his margin due to another significant redistribution before the 2010 election. He initially attempted to run for nomination for the vacant Gold Coast seat. Dutton was rebuffed by local branch members and re-contested Dickson. He was easily reelected due to the statewide swing against Labor. Dutton’s margin in the 2019 election was 1.7% after swings back and forth during the two subsequent elections. Many expected Dutton would be the most prominent cabinet casualty in the government’s defeat. However, the “Morrison miracle” increased his margin by 3%.

Results of the 2019 Election

LNP won majorities in 20 of the 34 polling locations for the 2019 election. The best result was 67.0% at the Church of the Resurrection outside the joint polling place in Bridgman downs. 19.5% was recorded at Mt Nebo State School. First-preference votes explained this strange result. The Greens scored the most votes with 40.1% more than Labor at 38.1% and the LNP at 13.4%.

Past Results

Over the past 20 years, despite changes in the boundaries, LNP results for Dickson have remained close to the party’s statewide support level. This has changed in the two most recent elections. It may have been due to Labor and other groups trying to unseat Peter Dutton. The gap in 2019 could have been widened by swings in South-East Queensland, which tend to be smaller than those in rural or regional Queensland.