Mexico-U.S. relations continue to change with every aggressive move by the White House. From threats to renegotiate NAFTA to a new Executive Order aimed at removing millions of Mexican migrants.
A showdown seems inevitable with Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson both visiting Mexico City this week. How will the Mexican government handle the upcoming leadership test?
Recent events and public opinion in Mexico indicate that not well. Mexicans dislike President Trump deeply, but they also don’t like President Enrique Pena Nieto. His 17% approval rating is the lowest ever recorded for a Mexican President.
Mexicans: Not quite a united face
Early in the saga, there were some expectations that President Pena would capitalize on domestic discontent due to Trump to strengthen his negotiating position. He was expected to play a multi-level diplomatic game.
This has dissipated quickly. Pena Nieto is facing intense internal resistance as a result of the increase in gas prices, continued violence throughout the country, and alleged corruption. The question of whether Mexicans support the president against Donald Trump has caused a division.
Mass protests were held across the country in mid-February to demonstrate a united Mexican front against Trump’s policies and promises. Around 20,000 Mexicans rallied under the flag. However, cleavages among event organizers showed early on that they wouldn’t be rallying behind their president.
The largest parade in Mexico City took place on February 13. It revealed two major factions. Mexico Unido was in support of the president. Vibra Mexico used the public space to request Pena Nieto’s participation in US negotiations in a transparent and accountable manner.
These appeals were not heard by others who shouted slogans at the president. Some demanded his resignation (“Fuera Pena“). These chants have been muted by some demonstrators, who were only there to protest Trump.
The low popularity of Pena Nieto is evident in the fact that a march to reject Trump’s agenda and to demand accountability from Pena Nieto became an outright demonstration against the president.
How to not march
This is a lesson on how not to run a successful movement.
A protest movement must have two things to stay together: a broad but clear frame and a collective identity which makes the members feel part of a bigger group. Mexico’s Zapatista Movement, which framed indigenous issues as human rights struggles, is an example of the first. The feminist movement encompasses various groups that share a common goal.
The organisers were able to unite under one banner several groups who agreed that US policies and discourse should be rejected. Around 20,000 people participated in the march. The coalition that resulted was much smaller than expected because the organizers underestimated citizens’ desire to protest President Pena.
Pena Nieto, the President of Mexico, and Luis Videgaray, Foreign Minister, will be meeting with Trump’s team this week. Carlos Jasso/Reuters
The Mexican left-wing student groups declined the invitation, and the political parties were prohibited from attending. Organisers acknowledged that the number of participants was lower than expected.
commentators have also noted that the demonstration lacked a certain luster. Mexicans from all social groups are entitled to take to the streets to defend their rights, but the absence of working-class and poor demonstrators also indicates that there is a problem with the messaging.
Due to these strategic mistakes, Mexico’s marching together was lacking focus. Demonstrators quarreled about which president they should protest and wondered if some organizers, such as the Mexico Unido group, had the standing required to be present.
Not really a people who protests
Mexicans are not known for their public protests.
According to the World Values Survey which compares attitudes of citizens across the globe, nearly half of Mexicans who were surveyed in 2012 never participated in a peaceful protest. This is compared to only a quarter among Swedish and Australians and nine out of ten in Azerbaijan or Egypt.