Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Managing Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters for Advancement of Climate Change Adaptation. The full version of this report is expected to be published in February of next year.
The Science Media Centre of the UK and the Science Media Centre of Canada (which also held a “webinar” on the IPCC summary report available to Dr. McInnes The Science Media Centre of the UK and the Science Media Centre of Canada provide specialist analysis of the IPCC Summary Report.
An ethnic Turkana woman in northwestern Kenya where a drought is taking its toll on millions of people and leading to militia violence over access to water.
This report, which focuses on extreme weather events and brings together experts in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation to examine options for managing climate change risks, is the first comprehensive assessment of its kind.
The full report will be released in February of next year, and more regional details will be available. However, for Australia, it appears that the overall number of cold nights and days has decreased, and the overall number of warm nights and days has increased. Although storm systems that impact southern Australia have likely moved poleward, the lack of observing capability means that there is a low level of confidence about changes in tropical cyclone activities.
The anthropogenic influence on global extreme temperatures has likely led to a warming of daily minimum and maximum temperature extremes and an increase in extreme coastal high tides due to the contributions from mean sea levels.
Due to the rarity of extremes, changes in many extremes and their causes are assessed with lower levels of confidence due to factors such as length of observational records and natural variability. Due to their rarity, changes in extremes and their causes can be assessed with lower confidence levels due to factors such as the length of observational records and natural variability. Lacking confidence in a change observed does not mean that it has happened.
In the 21st Century, it is almost certain that there will be an increase in the frequency of extremes of daily temperatures and a decrease in extremes of cold. It is also very likely that heat waves and other warm spells will continue to grow in length, intensity, and frequency over the majority of land areas. In many parts of the world, heavy rainfall or the proportional increase of total rainfall due to heavy rains will also increase in the 21st Century. By the end of the 21st Century in Australia, it is expected that a daily maximum temperature will occur every 1 to 10 years. The rise in sea level is likely to contribute to future trends of extreme coastal high tide levels.
This report not only addresses climate extremes but also incorporates perspectives from the research communities that study adaptation to climate changes and disaster risk reduction. The vulnerability of humans, ecosystems, and physical systems strongly influences the impact of extreme weather events and climate changes.
James Lovelock is a scientist, inventor, and the founder of the Gaia Theory. The theory holds that Earth, as an automated system, will correct imbalances through the mass death of those who caused the imbalance. Lovelock said that authoritarianism might be necessary for a while if serious measures are taken to combat climate change. Flickr/Jon & Lu
Professor Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical Climate Hazards, University College London
Extreme events like floods and droughts will have a major impact on human society as a result of anthropogenic global warming. This groundbreaking report makes use of the most recent observations and models in order to predict what we can expect over the next few decades. The report also reveals the unexpected and complex ways that climate change can lead to dangerous extreme events. This includes a response by the Earth itself in the form of increased landslide activities and other geological hazards.
Dr Simon Brown is the Climate Extremes Research Manager at Met Office Hadley Centre
The IPCC’s focus on extremes has been very welcomed, as these phenomena are likely to be how ordinary people experience climate change for the first time. Extreme weather events are the main cause of human susceptibility to climate change. It is therefore important that we concentrate on them, as they could have large-scale and significant effects if they changed for the worse. This review is very useful in advancing science as it brings together a variety of studies, not only on the physical weather aspect of climate extremes but also on how we can adapt and respond in the future to changes.
Bob Ward is the policy and communication director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (London School of Economics and Political Science).
The latest scientific evidence, reviewed by an expert, clearly shows how climate change has already had a significant impact on extreme weather events such as heat waves. Remarkably, severe weather events are so rare, and it’s difficult to detect statistically meaningful trends with such small data sets. These trends were identified in the past few decades when global temperatures rose by just a few 10ths of centigrade degrees. If we don’t stop the steep rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases, we will see more extreme weather and much more warming.