In the seven-year civil conflict, nearly half of the country’s population has fled. 6.6 million urban dwellers have relocated to the countryside, and 4.9 million citizens have crossed the borders, mostly into neighboring countries.
The primary destination is Lebanon, which is nearby. Since 2011, this small, religiously varied country of 4.5 million people has welcomed more than one million refugees.
The massive influx of refugees into Lebanon has destabilized Lebanon’s education and health systems. It’s like France received 15 million, or the United States 80 million. (These countries have actually committed to taking in, respectively, 30,000 and 10,000 Syrians in 2017).
Migration also threatens to upset the delicate balance of religion and political affairs in the country. About 40% of Lebanon’s population is Christian. These communities have been living in peace despite tensions for many years.
Medics in the Ain el-Hilweh Refugee Camp near Sidon, Southern Lebanon, 2017. Ali Hashisho/Reuters
A Lebanese renaissance?
, a recent project, examined the impact of Syrians arriving in Lebanon, mainly Sunni Muslims.
We imagined contrasting futures of Lebanon in transition for 2030: one positive (we named it Phoenixia) and two darker ones (Sarajevo Beach and Boot Camp).
Phoenixia assumes a slowdown in the flow of refugees (as Syrians face forced removal) and that Lebanon will remain a strong, centralized state. This scenario sees the country becoming more secular and developing under the influence of international donors who are conditioned to provide financial support if Syrian refugees can be better integrated.
This is the direction we consider most desirable for Lebanon in transition, but the appeal of every scenario differs from stakeholder to stakeholder. There are many in Lebanon.
The 1943 National Pact is a non-written document that has been traditionally regarded as the constitution of the country. The National Pact allocates administrative and political posts based on the 1932 Census.
Maronite Christians get the powerful president of the Republic and command of the army. The Shiites are in charge of the presidency of parliament, and the Greek Orthodox is the vice-presidency.
Christians are one of the many religious groups in Lebanon. Jamal Saidi/Reuters
Lebanese officials have decided not to conduct another census despite the fact that the population has changed over the last 80 years, mainly due to the higher fertility rates among Muslim groups.
The National Pact is protected, but it’s a fragile situation. Integration of hundreds of thousands of Sunni Syrians, not to mention the 400,000 Sunni Palestinians who are already in Syria, could dispel the myth that there is a religious balance.
Phoenixia believes that the secularisation of society is key to neutralizing religious upheaval. If religious identity were not an issue, the Syrian refugees would not be a political challenge (although the care and accommodation of the new arrivals still present a social and economic challenge).
Tensions increase
It’s not as simple as that. The Lebanese political parties are mandated by the community-based organizations of the country, who also have exclusive jurisdiction to deal with all matters that fall under the personal status law, including marriage, ancestral lineage, and inheritance.
These organizations will likely oppose and succeed in doing so in the current system.
The Sarajevo Beach is the exact opposite of Phoenixia. The central hypothesis of the scenario is that as refugees increase, they will overwhelm a weak central government. The socio-economic situation in Lebanon would deteriorate dramatically, with both natives and migrants facing shortages of housing, water, and electricity.