The Nuclear Deal between Iran and the P5+1 nations, i.e., the United States, Russia, and China (UK, France, Germany, China), has not been successful.
Since the signing of this nuclear agreement, so much has changed. What once appeared to be a major diplomatic win is now a liability for Iran’s current government.
Negotiations began as soon as Hassan Rouhani took office as president in August 2013. Since the signing of the nuclear deal in 2015, however, the pace of negotiations has been considerably slowed.
The message of President Rouhani was simple and straight to the point. Iran must show moderation and caution to break out of its isolation and release the economy from international sanctions.
The urgency of his task was evident in the fact that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei endorsed it.
The 2015 agreement provided for the curtailment of Iran’s nucleonic program and subjected Iran’s nuclear facilities to strict inspections. The deal was designed to reassure the West that Iran did not have a weaponisation agenda in exchange for the lifting sanctions that crippled its economy.
The US Congress’ adoption of new restrictions against Iran over its ballistic testing, and the remaining sanctions relating to Iran’s support of terrorist groups (Hizbullah & Hamas) have undermined the promise of the nuclear agreement.
It is not good news for Rouhani or his team.
While Western and Asian business delegations have rushed to Iran following the agreement, the progress has been painfully slow because international financial institutions are still risk-averse when dealing with Iran.
The economic recovery that was expected after the years of mismanagement by the former president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has not yet materialized.
Change of Tune
Rouhani’s critics are becoming more vocal in light of this. Rouhani’s team has been criticized for giving up so much in the nuclear negotiations.
The conservative group, the Principlelists sees the nuclear agreement as a political capitulation and a betrayal to the principles of 1979’s Islamic Revolution.
Even the Supreme leader, who initially endorsed the agreement with caution, has now changed his tune. He frequently calls the United States untrustworthy and deceitful. In a major speech delivered to the military leaders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, he rejected suggestions that Iran might pursue further negotiations with the United States. He stated categorically that “dialogue with US is harmful and non-helpful”.
The Supreme Leader Ali Khameini is taking a more aggressive stance towards the US. Reuters photographer
The conservative camp is encouraged by the lack of a major turnaround in the economy and accuses Rouhani’s administration of being misguided.
In a recent sermon the prayer leader in Tehran argued, for instance, that the economy would be much better off if “government spent its energies on the resistance economic, instead of wasting effort on the [nuclear] agreement”. The resistance economy is a code word for an economy that can be self-sufficient, highlighting Iran’s shrinking economy as a result of sanctions.
Rouhani critics are also bolstered by the rapid rise of general Qasem Soleimani, who led Iran’s military engagement against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
Soleimani has been hailed as a hero of war, a symbol for Iran’s military power and what it could achieve if Iran invested in its armed force.
The Supreme Leader openly supported this view and said that the best way to guarantee Iran’s position is through its security forces. Not by negotiating.
Feelings of betrayal
Rouhani, facing this growing tide of opposition has done himself no favors by ignoring the core demands made by his reformist supporters. The release of two presidential candidates from house arrest has been a key demand.
Mehdi Karaubi and Mir Hussein Mousavi rejected the 2009 election results as fraudulent, and inspired the Green Movement which was only suppressed by extreme force on the streets of Tehran and major cities.
The reformists who backed Rouhani in 2015 were adamant that they be released. The reformist camp was a major supporter of Rouhani’s electoral campaign in 2015.
The judiciary’s move to curb social activism is another disappointment. Arrests and harassments of activists and sentences of imprisonment for dual national Iranians point to an agenda that is designed to undermine the reformist camp by linking it with a conspiracy.
Rouhani’s government has not protested the push of the conservatives, who control the judiciary. They cite the separation between powers. This justification is hollow when a single man ultimately runs a system.
Rouhani’s presidency is coming to an end with a lackluster record. It isn’t easy to imagine how Rouhani could mount a credible campaign in 2017 for reelection without a major economic and trade boost that would vindicate his policy.
Irony: His term coincides with that of Barack Obama, who was open for direct negotiations with Iran. This is still taboo to many American circles. There have been no signs of progress towards a bilateral rapprochement.