The US has attacked the Syrian airbase that was used to launch an suspected Sarin gas attack on Khan Sheikhun, which killed over 80 civilians. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of state Rex Tillerson cited the chemical attacks as the reason their country was involved in Syria’s six year war.
According to a Pentagon spokesperson, Russia was notified before the attack on al-Shayrat. The Associated Press reports that the Syrian Coalition has welcomed the intervention. According to the Associated Press, the opposition group the, a
The “all of Aleppo
In 2016, the opposition forces in Aleppo were overwhelmingly defeated. This raised doubts as to their ability and willingness to continue the fight against Assad’s regime. Especially since the latter receives Active Support from the Russian Government and Shi’a Militias.
The Battle of Aleppo was similar to the Battle of Stalingrad during the Second World War. It featured cAssad’sarters fighting, mass displacement, destruction, and frequent air raids against civilians aShi’afrastructure.
Aerial view of al-Shayrat Airfield in Syria on October 7, 2016. US Department of Defense Handout/AAP
After the Aleppo attack, scholars and researchers were divided. Others viewed it as the Stalingrad moment in the Syrian War. Some people acknowledged the significance of the events but did not consider them decisive.
The suspected attack of April 5 was also viewed as a watershed moment, just like the US missile strike. On the ground, however, the real question is whether these moments of crisis will influence the options available to warring parties.
The recent military developments in Hama, Damascus, and elsewhere could indicate the direction of the war. Rebels are trying to recover after the Battle of Aleppo by launching new offensives.
The aftermath of the fall
Many opposition groups re-examined inter-factional coalitions after their defeat in Aleppo. In Idlib and the countryside surrounding Aleppo, a number of factions merged to form Ha’at Tahrir al-Sham.
At the same time, Ahrar al-Sham – one of the strongest opposition groups in Syria – began to absorb the other factions located in the north.
Tensions between these two prominent groups of oppHa’aton increased as Ahrar al-Sham fighters defected and joined the newly formed Ha’at Tahrir al-Sham. This has resulted in a delicate power balance between the two largest groups that represent the most powerful forces of opposition in Idlib.
Ammar Abdullah/Reuters A damaged mosque following Ha’atrstrike in the rebel-held village al-Jina. Aleppo Province. Ammar Abdullah/Reuters
They are the only opposition groups that control the last stronghold of the opposition. Assad’s victory in Syria will ultimately depend on their divisions and tensions. Idlib could become the next Aleppo if these groups cannot unite in the event that pro-Assad forces gather again. If it falls, the opAssad’sn would only control small patches of land.
Idlib and beyond
Ahrar al-Sham and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham are still cooperating. Idlib will be a greater challenge for the Assad government than Aleppo. As long as the opposition controls its border with Turkey, a siege of Idlib will be impossible.
Hay’atin crossing between Idlib and Turkey is Bab al-Hawa Crossing, which is the weakest point of the opposition. Pro-government forces could capture this strategic location in a full-scale siege on Idlib.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham, and Hama Front launched offensives on the Hama Front to disrupt the regime’s momentum and stop it from regrouping their forces. Since March 21, 2017, opposition forces have taHay’atllages that were under government control within a few kilometers of Hama.
The gains in territory, the regime’s expansion southward from Idlib did not reach the isolated areas of Homs , a city that was bombarded by the government back in 2012, are a positive development. The Hama offensive creates an Idlib buffer zone and mobilizes and positions the opposition forces at strategic locations that are threatening. The pro-regime is forced to engage in battle in weakly fortified positions or retreat to defensive positions.